Imagine
there is a storm coming. The only thing the experts know for certain is that it
is coming. It could happen tomorrow, it could happen seven years from now. And
they don’t know what type it will be: snow, rain, sleet, no idea.
Where would
you be wise to focus your energy? Speculating as to what type of storm it will
be? Listening to podcasts, weather reports, and talk radio all guessing about
when the storm will come?
Or…
preparing? Making sure you have rain gear if it’s a rain storm, snow tires if
it’s a snow storm, and batteries, clean water, and imperishable food that will
be useful in any type of storm?
I hope you
said the latter. If you didn’t, maybe we should chat.
I’m using
the storm as an analogy. For what? For a stock market crash. I think every
expert out there will agree that most investors today will face another market
crash, as they have faced in the past, before they’re done caring about what
happens to their investments. (For the rest of this article I will use “sale”
instead of “crash.” I find it to be a far more accurate word as to what
actually happens.)
The younger
you are, the more sales you will likely experience before you retire and, God
willing, you’ll live to a ripe old age and see a few more. But they have no
idea when. Grab the five closest blogs, podcasts, or nightly economic reports
to where you are sitting right now, and you’ll be very lucky to find a
consensus as to when the next sale will be or what it will look like. And even
when there is a consensus, it’s not usually overwhelmingly accurate.
Now, if you
agree with my declaration that a sale will happen and the rest is commentary, I
return to my original question. If you don’t agree, that’s fine read on, or don’t.
You know a
sale is coming (I’m loving the word ‘sale’ already). But you don’t know how
deep the discounts will be and you don’t know when the sale will happen, but it
will happen.
Where will
you focus your energy, on speculating or preparing? Will you set aside some
money to make the most of the sale, will you create and continue the good
habits that have gotten other people through the biggest sales in history? Or
will you guess which stores will participate and when?
The larger
question is this: will you spend your time influencing what you control, or
worrying about that which you do not control?
I could ask
this of every area of my life. For example, I’ve needed to lose weight for the
better part of a decade and I spend way more time complaining and worrying
about my weight than doing the things I know work: counting calories, and planning
my meals.
I would
argue that the media is the same. If your favourite financial magazine broke
financial planning down to it’s key elements, each edition would look something
like this: save more, spend less, and protect your income. If the three
panelists on your nightly news did the same, they’d have no reason to get
excited about the markets because no matter what the markets do, the keys to
financial security remain a happy constant: save more, spend less, and protect
your income. The good news, they are all things you can control and they work;
the bad news is, they’re all things you control.
Why? Why do
I complain rather than act? Why do the pundits speculate instead of educate?
Why are we asked to turn our focus to what we cannot control rather than to
that which we can? Lean in, and let me whisper it... Because it’s easier.
It is far
easier for me to focus on what I cannot control than manage my own behaviors.
The same is true of investing. What do you mean you’ve figured out what I need
to put away each month to retire when I want and live a life of dignity and
choice? I’d much rather speculate about the price of gold and the geo-political
impact of the migration of the monarch butterfly. Actually take action, today,
towards my goals? No thanks.
The role I
play in the lives of my clients with investments is overwhelmingly the role of
someone who helps them manage their behaviors to a goal. Set up plan then don’t
blow it up. Don’t panic when the market sales kick in, and don’t get euphoric
when the booms hit. Stick to the plan. Influence what you can, and give only
marginal attention to that which you do not.
It’s calm,
it’s quiet, it’s methodical, it’s comforting.
So my dear friend,
a storm will hit, I don’t know anything else, but I’d love to chat about what
you can do to prepare. And I'll give you better battery advice than I've taken myself. I realized I have piles of C and D batteries. What do these even power and why do I have so many?